Aussie ( SPI)Index Weekly 16th August 08

Australian Cash Weekly charts

Currently Range bound this Quarter trading below the breakout of June's lows, and at this stage there is an expectation that in 2008 prices will move lower before they bottom out....

Commodity prices are moving lower, which are weighing heavily on our Resource stocks, even though BHP will announce a record profit next week...

SPI WeeklyFutures

Markets have stabilised and have moved into a sideways pattern, underpinned by US markets moving higher and reporting season.

BHP reporting on Monday and some financial stocks reporting this month supporting the market.

SPI Daily

We can see how congested the market is this month, and at this stage I can't see any difference next week.



Next Week:- Range bound which will be heavily influnced by US markets, but Monday should be driven by the market's reaction to BHP record profit announcement.

Any new down trend won't occur until US markets lead..... (Read US Weekly Report) , and dragged down by Financials to bottom out the market.

Aussie ( SPI)Index Weekly 9th August 08

"July's lows supported the market, and if the market was going to go higher, then it was based on the open of August and it's direction based on the midpoint @ 5000.

As mentioned in last week's report:- an open below that level in August and expectation price is moving down towards August lows, as it follows the B setup.

Day traders:- simply trade the 5-day levels using Spiral point techniques"

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Weekly and Daily charts

The Aussie Market opened below 5000 at the start of August and began the next wave down, as part of the B Set-up, continuing down into the Weekly lows completing the first stage of the sell pattern.

Whereas in the US, those markets closed above their 50% levels, which favoured a rise higher into Friday

(click link to read DOW and S&P Weekly Reports)

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

Often global markets move in unison, we saw this in the lows in March, the lows in July, but the 'pop' upwards in August wasn't aligned in the Australian market compared to the US markets.

Most of the UP moves in the market were because of the US markets continuation higher providing the higher opens.

Next Week:- price is trading above 5000, and the short-term view is to continue higher into the Weekly highs @ 5159, and could go as high as 5233 (following Week)

Ideal pattern would be a test and reject pattern from the Weekly 50% level.

After that completes I don't have a long term view on the market for another 5-days.

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Aussie ( SPI)Index Weekly 2nd August 08

XJO Weekly Charts

The Aussie Index is moving down into the Yearly lows, which will probably be reached in September.

From the Time price was trading below 6213 (Bear Market :- Dilernia Principles), the downside target in 2008 were the Yearly lows.

And along with support, swing patterns, trends, resistance, and cycles:- the market structure was precisely mapped out based on the timeframe parameters defined by the Dilernia model.

Price doesn't move in a straight line, it zig-zags its way based on waves of 'Time'. A support level is valid for the current timeframe, once that timeframe ends the levels of support 'shift' and dynamically move forward, allowing the trader to have a trading model that is forward looking.

As is the case with July's support:- vaild for the current monthly timeframe but shifts forward at the start of the new timeframe. What support that existed in July won't be valid in the month of August.



SPI Weekly and 24 hour charts

Expectation is that the Aussie Index is moving down into the Yearly lows around 4538which is starting to align with the August lows.

I've put up both charts showing a difference in levels with the August lows, and if the SPI ends up lower it will probably occur in September, which could push lower based on the next monthly dynamic range, but I'll come back to that in 4 weeks time.

September could see the market as low @ 4373.

I can see the aussie market around that level in September, but I'd be surprised to see the market much lower in 2008. However, I do expect a lower low in 2009, which will be determined by the closing price of 2008 on the last day of the year.


SPI Daily and 5-day pattern

July's lows supported the market, and if the market was going to go higher, then it was based on the open of August and it's direction based on the midpoint of August @ 5000.

As mentioned in last week's report:- an open below that level in August and expectation price is moving down towards August lows, as it follows the B setup.

Day traders:- simply trade the 5-day levels using Spiral point techniques.

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Australian( SPI)Index Weekly 26th July 08

"I'm not expecting a major counter-trend move UP like what occurred in March this Year, my view is support forming around 4836 and remaining range bound below 5100 until the end of July, and if there is going to be a 'pop' upwards into the monthly 50% level, then there is more of a chance that higher prices would occur from August.

After a rotation into the Monthly 50% level, my view remains that the Aussie market is heading down into the Yearly lows @ 4538."

Weekly Report 12th July 2008

SPI Weekly Report

Market reversal off July's lows and a move back UP into 5100.

The reason I'm not expecting a major reversal this time compared to March is because of the breakout of June's lows. (5100)

This pattern will probably remain range bound for the rest of July and then the next move begins from August....

SPI Daily...

Last Week global markets reversed down from their highs, but this reversal pattern was just a rotation back down into the Weekly 50% level.

There is a big difference between a reversal down this week and previous weeks, it's occurring above the weekly 50% levels and not below.

Therefore next Week can continue higher:- lower Weekly open and rising higher after it's verified the 3-day cycle support on Friday.

"remaining range bound below 5100 until the end of July, and if there is going to be a 'pop' upwards into the monthly 50% level, then there is more of a chance that higher prices would occur from August."

So what's the POP?

The POP is the start of August defined by it's own level (balance point red dotted line).

If the market is going to rise higher and back towards the Monthly 50% level, then it's going to align with the start of August (SET=UP A)

If SET-UP A plays out then I'm looking for a move back down into the Yearly lows, but it might take a few weeks to unwind into a new down-trend.

SET-UP B:- is simply the down-trend continuing from August, which normally occurs with the market opening below the August balance point and rejects down.

SPI 5-day pattern

Day traders simply trade on the side of the 5-day level, using the 5-day filters along with the Spiral point trading set-ups intra-day.

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Australian( SPI) Index Weekly 19th July 08

"Once the July lows (4836) are reached next week, my expectation is price is going to swing back towards the 3-week highs.

A rotation UP towards the Monthly 50% level, but it could take a number of weeks to move back towards the Monthly 50% level in August."

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Weekly and Daily charts

The Australian Index found support around July's lows @ 4836 , but the reversal upwards last week wasn't as robust as US markets, namely because BHP was dragging the market down.

I mentioned a number of weeks ago that BHP and other resources stocks would be the main culprits in sending the Index lower, whilst telling my readers that once 4836 hits that i'll be moving back into financials for the 3rd time this year.

And i'll be exiting banking stocks around their Weekly highs and moving into cash again probably early next week.

I'm looking for the Aussie index to remain range bound between last week's lows and 5100, and could move slightly higher in August and back into the 50% level.

After any completion into the 50% level, my view remains for prices to move back down into lower lows in coming months.

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Australian( SPI) Index Weekly 12th July 2008

"Whenever there is a breakout of the Weekly timeframe and Friday closes below (5100), price normally continues down towards the next weekly lows after a 2 day consolidation.

Breakout of June's lows @ 5100, can send the market down into 4836 before any reversal pattern back towards July's 50% level occurs.

Therefore the first two days of trading next week should give traders a fair idea on how the market is going to play out, because if the trend is going to continue down, it will normally occur after a 2-day 'stalling' pattern."

Previously Weekly Report

SPI Weekly chart

SPI has continued down from 5100 and the breakout towards 4836.

Once the July lows are reached next week, my expectation is price is going to swing back towards the 3-week highs, but that needs to be confirmed with similar price action in the US markets.

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

SPI Daily

Last Week the SPI remained in a tight 5-day pattern around the Weekly lows 4929, and next Week's lows @ 4844 match my overall view of the down move into 4836 in July.

Note: A rotation UP towards the Monthly 50% level, but it could take a number of weeks to move back towards the Monthly 50% level in August.

What that basically means is that, I'm not expecting a major counter-trend move UP like what occurred in March this Year, my view is support forming around 4836 and remaining range bound below 5100 until the end of July, and if there is going to be a 'pop' upwards into the monthly 50% level, then there is more of a chance that higher prices would occur from August.

After a rotation into the Monthly 50% level, my view remains that the Aussie market is heading down into the Yearly lows @ 4538-82, which will be helped by Resource stocks namely BHP.

Any UP move in the next few weeks is only viewed as short-term, with the expectation of lower prices in 2008.

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Australian( SPI) Index Weekly 5th July 2008

“Note:- Around the 100% of the Weekly lows in the 24 hour market has often provide major support and reversal patterns in the market for the current weekly timeframe.

That area of interest is around 4953”…… Thursday’s Report

SPI Daily

SPI reversed down from the Weekly 50% level and completed the move into July's lows, hitting a low on Friday in sycom @ 4951, and we can see Friday moving higher from 5013.

Around July's low after completing a 2 month wave pattern downwards, I'm look for a counter-trend move back towards the July 50% level.

A few of things need to be verified for the UP move to occur :- bounce off Monthly lows, breakout of the 5-day highs (usually lead by US markets), and then price needs to be trading above the Weekly 50% level.

So far the first pattern is playing out, and now we need to see two more.....

But is the SPI going to move higher, or actually continue down???

Whenever there is a breakout of the Weekly timeframe and Friday closes below, price normally continues down towards the next weekly lows (4929) after a 2 day consolidation.

We can see this pattern taking place, as was the case two weeks ago.....

SPI Weekly

In the Weekly chart the same pattern, breakout of June's lows @ 5100, can send the market down into 4836 before any reversal pattern back towards July's 50% level occurs.

Therefore the first two days of trading next week should give traders a fair idea on how the market is going to play out, because if the trend is going to continue down, it will normally occur after a 2-day 'stalling pattern.

There are two set-ups in Play in July:-

Set-up A:- bounce off July's lows @ 5013 and continue up into the 50% level.

or

Set-up B:- continuation downwards, which is still a possibility, because of the breakout patterns just discussed.

SPI 5-day

All intra-day 5-day pattern trading, set-ups, and filters discussed in the 'Trader Premium'

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