SPI Futures 7th January 2012 Weekly Report

The Primary cycles in the Australian Market suggests that the trend will continue down, however the S&P 500 Primary cycle suggests upside.


Therefore it won't take much for price to move above the January 50% level @ 4088 and swing back towards the Weekly highs, and then the 1st Quarter 50% level @ 4250 to 4292

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles..

US markets continue to move higher, and as seen with the Australian market this week, it didn’t take much for price to move above the January 50% level @ 4088.


Currently the monthly 50% level is supporting the trend, and if US markets continue to move upwards (Read US Index report), then the Australian Market will try its best to move upwards, as part of larger move towards the 1st Quarter 50% level.

The first sign will be price trading above the Weekly 50% level @ 4118.

As quickly as it has moved above the Monthly 50% level, it can just as quickly move back below it, as the larger cycles continue to suggest further weakness.

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 31st December 2011

SPI Primary cycles

The Primary cycles in the Australian Market suggests that the trend will continue down towards the lower levels in 2012, which will once again be long term BUY zones for stocks.

However, in the S&P 500 (read US Index report), the same bearish patterns aren't showing, as the trend will begin the new year above its own higher timeframe 50% levels.

That means that the Australian market could move up towards the higher timeframe 50% levels (1st Quarter) and the Yearly 50% level @ 4389 and BUTT its head against those levels for awhile....(3-6 months)

continue below....

SPI Monthly and Weekly

All the lesser timeframe cycles are bearish, and remain bearish as long as the trend remains  below the monthly 50% levels.

But as we can see, it won't take much for price to move above the January 50% level @ 4088 and swing back towards the Weekly highs, and then the 1st Quarter 50% level @ 4250 to 4292

Helped by the S&P 500 remaining above its Critical Support level @ 1235.75

Australian Stock Market SPI futures 24th December 2011

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

Most of the timeframe cycles remain bearish, as they are trading below the 50% levels.

And the only thing supporting the market was the S&P 500, which formed support and continued higher (read US Index report), allowing the Aussie market to remain stable.

with a shortened week (next Week), I'm not sure how the market will play out, but the close of next week will set-up the new Primary and Secondary cycles, which will play an important role, as illustrated with the 1st Quarter 50% level.

SPI futures Australian Stock Market 17 December 2011

we begin to focus on whether there is a late move up towards the December highs over the next few weeks.

Weekly 50% level Trend guide.

SPI Monthly and Weekly

No late move towards the December highs, as the SPI failed to remain above the Weekly 50% level @ 4204.

Price action has gone from remaining stable & consolidating to WEAK, coming into the end of 2011, as price is now below the December 50% levels

And unless it's back above the Weekly 50% level @ 4181

2012 doesn't look like it's going to start well. (chart Below)

SPI Primary cycles

 All trends originate from higher trimeframe 50% levels, and if it the current patterns follow the same expectation....

Then 2012 can move lower than the current 2011 lows 

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 10th December 2011

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

After this week's price action of testing the December 50% level, along with Global markets rising up on Friday...

Now we begin to focus on whether there is a late move up towards the December highs over the next few weeks.

Weekly 50% level Trend guide.

Australian Stock Market SPI futures 3rd December 2011 Weekly report

Early next week rises upward (3-day rise), then the Weekly level @ 4125 is seen as resistance.

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

 4125 and the Weekly level formed resistance for the first 2-days, but as US markets followed the same 3-day rise this sent the Aussie market back into the Weekly highs by Friday

So we are back to my original view of the market consolidating for the rest of the 4th Quarter.

Next Week:- as long as it’s below 4319, the trend bias is to slip back towards the Weekly 50% level (random support)

With a view that some time over the next 2-weeks revisit the December 50% levels.


Whilst markets are above the Monthly 50% levels, the trend bias is up.

Australian Stock Market SPI futures 26th November 2011 Weekly Report

Next week's levels @ 4164-72, will provide enough information whether the market continues to trade between the Weekly levels (consolidation) or whether the downtrend continues.

as it won't take much for the market to be trading below the November 50% levels, putting more pressure on the market. 

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

Monday failed to remain above support levels (November 50% level @ 4164), as the S&P 500 opened below it's own support levels on Monday. (read US Index report)

The breakout of the Weekly lows @ 4102 will normally extend towards next week's lows @ 3919

 Note:- My view is that price will retest last week's breakout @ 4102..

That means it could move down into next week's lows @ 3919  and then swing upwards, which will align with the December 50% levels, and further resistance.

 But, if  early next week rises upward (3-day rise), then those Weekly lows @ 4102 and the Weekly level @ 4125 are seen as resistance. 

Based on current price action my expectation is that it will then extend down towards the December lows.