Australian Stock Market Weekly Report 19th October 2014

Trend bias is to complete the Primary cycles based on the Dilernia Principle of Break & Extend towards the 2014 highs. As we can see, the change in cycle saw support come into the market @ 5266, whilst within the Monthly cycles there is another break & extend pattern that suggests the minimum move will be towards the April highs. (March 50% level Support) My view remains, off load Margin long positions around those Yearly highs

Previous Weekly Report

Australia Stock Market :- Primary & Secondary Cycles

The Market has played out as expected, completing the Primary Cycles towards the 2014 highs, and hopefully traders took my recommendation to exit Long Margin Positions around those upper levels.

When we look at the shorter cycles within the Weekly timeframe, we can see a similar break and extend pattern on the downside, from the September lows & now into the October lows. This medium term support coincides with the 2014 Yearly 50% level.

At this stage in the game, the secondary cycles are likely to form resistance around 5399 (SELL ZONE), and with just over 2-months to go until the end of this Primary cycle, it’s way too early to have a long term view of the overall market trend.

My view is that the Market could consolidate within a narrow band of the Sell Zone, and short-term Support until the next Primary cycle begins in 2015.

SPI Futures Australia Stock Market 7th April 2014 Monthly report

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Trend bias is to complete the Primary cycles based on the Dilernia Principle of  Break & Extend towards the 2014 highs.

As we can see, the change in cycle saw support come into the market @ 5266, whilst within the Monthly cycles there is another break & extend pattern that suggests the minimum move will be towards the April highs. (March 50% level Support)

My view remains, off load Margin long positions around those Yearly highs, whilst keeping an eye on the same patterns in US futures markets (Read US report)

SPI Futures Australia Stock Market 3rd March 2014

The Market has moved down into 1st Quarter support @ 5067, after following the December break and extend pattern from 5338 (resistance) in the 4th Quarter & into 1st Quarter Support.

As noted in previous reports last year, the Primary cycles suggests the trend can extend up towards the 2014 highs,  however that view needs to be validated with the current price action, starting with a  breakout of the 5-day highs, followed by a breakout @ 5122

Previous Monthly Report 

SPI Primary & Monthly Cycles

Trend bias is to complete the move towards the 2014 Primary highs @ 5574, as part of the Primary cycle Break & Extend pattern from the 2013 highs.

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles

BUY Support @ 5067 was validated with the 5-day high breakout that aligned with 5122..(Yearly 50% level)

The Trend should follow the move towards the March highs :- Random resistance @ 5537...

Trailing support March 50% level.

SPI Futures 4th February 2014 Monthly Report

The BUY zone in the first quarter remains @ 5066 if there is any short-term resistance around 5338

 Note:- there is a breakout in December (December 50% level matched with red channel), this can act as resistance (along with 5338) for the rest of December.

 A close above 5338 by the 31st of December, as occurred at the end of July, will help validate that Primary Cycle.... (24th December 2013)

SPI Primary Cycle and Monthly Cycles

The Market has moved down into 1st Quarter support @ 5066, after following the December break and extend pattern from 5338 (resistance) in the 4th Quarter & into 1st Quarter Support.

As noted in previous reports last year, the Primary cycles suggests the trend can extend up towards the 2014 highs,  however that view needs to be validated with the current price action, starting with a  breakout of the 5-day highs, followed by a 3-week high breakout @ 5122 sometime in 'March', end of the first Quarter. 

Simply because, the current trend in this Quarter & now  being below the 2014 yearly 50% level @ 5122, dosen't bode well for a Primary break & extend pattern towards the 2014 highs

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 24th December 2013

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary Cycle suggests the trend will continue to move up towards the 2014 cycles highs (Read US S&P 500 report)

BUY zone in the 4th Quarter @ 4960, didn't reach, but the BUY zone in the first quarter remains @ 5066 if there is any short-term resistance.

Note:- there is a breakout in December (December 50% level matched with red channel),

this can act as resistance (along with 5338) for the rest of December.

A close above 5338 by the 31st of December, as occurred at the end of July, will help validate that Primary Cycle

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market 12th December 2013

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Market didn't hit the November highs, unlike the US markets, and we can see that the December support has failed to hold, as part of a Primary trend towards the the 2014 highs.

I still believe that the market will continue towards those Primary cycle highs, however the Monthly cycles suggest the trend will continue to follow a 2-month wave pattern downward into 1st Quarter support.

If the trend does continue higher, then this BUY zone in the next Quarter is probably the best level to be moving back into the market

The Australian Stock Market SPI Futures 2nd November 2013 Monthly Report

 Primary Cycles suggests the trend will continue higher towards the 2014 highs,

The Trailing support has moved upwards, as shown in October @ 5128

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Future support @ 5128 came into play in early October, as part of the Primary cycle trend towards the 2014 yearly highs.

The short-term cycle will complete around the November highs, as this is part of the 2-month trending pattern within this Quarterly cycle, as described in my books.