Aussie Index (SPI) 27 FEB 2010 Weekly

SPI Quarterly and Monthly

The view remains that the SPI is heading towards the 2nd Quarter highs.

However, for the rest of this Quarter price can still remain below the Quarter levels @ 4741-59

There is nothing on the horizon that suggest short-term weakness in the markets, and the price action in US markets are bullish.

Now until the 2nd Quarter is a long time, but at this stage the expectation is to continue higher, starting with a 2-day UP move next week.

Financials look like they want to go higher, but the Energy stocks look like they are going to keep the breaks on, as the Energy index at the moment continues to look bearish. (read Stock Report)

Aussie Index (SPI) 20 Feb 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Aussie market still trading below the monthly 50% levels, and the longer it remains below these levels during this quarter the more chance it's going to moving down in March.

In saying that...I think our market will end up around 4760 during February, simply because I believe US markets will continue higher during this month.

In the short-term there could be more resistance in the first couple of days, but thereafter it should continue upwards, if the S&P follows the Weekly dynamics.

Read US report

Aussie Index (SPI) 13 FEB 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly & Weekly

Support 3-Quarter 50% level and double monthly low pattern in February

This is a bullish set-up, and if US markets had the same pattern then our market would be moving back towards 4750 this Quarter.

4750 is the Quarterly balance point or the January 50% level.

However, we don't have the same patterns, and Friday's trading in the US didn't break resistance levels.

What that means is more consolidation between support and the 50% levels this month.

And what we need to keep an eye out for is how the market trades over the next 2-weeks coming into March.

The longer price consolidates the more likely March will push lower, especially as the 3-week highs catch up with the current price action.

In the short-term... I would think that the Weekly 50% level should see the SPI move back towards the February 50% levels.

Daily report out on Monday.

Read US reports

Aussie Index (SPI) 6 FEB 2010 Weekly

SPI Futures

Short-term counter-trend move up into the 50% levels in February and the rejection down into the February lows.

Overall target during the first Quarter is around 4300...

However, this might not happen as February's lows could end up supporting the market until March.

The key level in the SPI next week is 4463, and whether it follows another pattern as last week and rotates back towards the 50% levels

And that will depend on the price action in the S&P early next week.

Read US weekly Report

Aussie Index (SPI) 30 Jan 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Expectation of the market reversing towards 4300 looks more likely it will happen quicker than I expected.

I didn't think the market was going to rise back above the 50% levels in January, and with extended selling in US markets on Friday, February's lows are now closely matched with the Target.

Support:- 4300 and February lows.

I feel around 4300 is a robust support level in our market for the first Quarter....

Will the market going higher from there?

XJO Cash market

That's going to depend on the 2nd Quarter...

A bullish market will bounce off 4318 and continue higher in the 2nd Quarter towards 5200+

If by the start of the 2nd Quarter can't get above 4600 and remain above that level...

Then don't underestimate the lines of 'least resistance'

Then the only conclusion I can make whilst below 4600 is a drifting pattern towards the 2nd Quarter lows at much lower prices....

Or a 3-month consolidation pattern until the start of the 3rd Quarter when Yellow support levels catch up with the trend.

Aussie Index (SPI) 22 Jan 2010 Weekly

"As per my view of 4956-68 being a major resistance zone I'm expecting the market to reverse down from these levels and begin to move into a larger Trend reversal.

"Little things can grow into big things, and the current price action that is occuring is acting in a manner that often leads into big things"

I'm not expecting January 50% levels to hold support"

Previous Weekly report


SPI Futures Monthly and Weekly

US markets has helped the SPI move down into support levels @ 4616, but below the January 50% levels, as I didn't expect those levels to hold during the first Quarter.

Even though these levels can support the market, I do have a larger trend reversal down towards 4300 in 2010.

My view is that the SPI should remain below the Weekly 50% level and January 50% levels over the next 5-days.

Aussie Index (SPI) 16 Jan 2010 Weekly

SPI Monthly and Weekly

"A lot of resistance levels around 4956-68, and the sign of any reversal will be a breakout of the 5-day lows (White line)"....Previous Weekly report

As per my view of 4956-68 being a major resistance zone I'm expecting the market to reverse down from these levels and begin to move into a larger Trend reversal.

4956 was reached precisely during the week in Sycom and then followed by a break of the 5-day lows, as US markets followed my expectation of a 2-day reversal down at the start of last week.

Currently the SPI is being supported around the Weekly 50% levels.

The major breakout of support will begin with price trading below 4781, which will probably occur during an overnight session. If US markets continue down next week, as part of my view of a trend reversal then over the next 3-weeks things should begin to get some decent volatility back into the market.

I could be completely wrong on my view, but little things can grow into big things, and the current price action that is occuring is acting in a manner that often leads into big things.

Note:- I'm not expecting January 50% levels to hold support.

If price is still above those monthy 50% levels by the end of the month, then there's the potential of the market breaking out of those upper resistance levels in the 2nd half of the first Quarter.